Showdown in New Hampshire

(Photo courtesy of Sunshine State News)

The second major contest of the 2012 Presidential Election goes down tonight in New Hampshire, where frontrunner Mitt Romney should be a lock to win by a relatively large margin. Unlike in Iowa last week, the drama tonight will be as to who comes in second- a distinction likely to go to either Ron Paul or Jon Huntsman. In the past few days, I had planned on writing a post on this blog endorsing Huntsman for the Republican nomination (I even had a title picked out- "He Blinded Me With Science," for Huntsman's lonely refusal to pit himself against the scientific community on evolution and climate change, as most or all of his other Republican comrades have done), though I highly doubt my endorsement would mean much to Huntsman or any Republican considering voting for him, given that I'm a staunch liberal and will enthusiastically support President Obama over any current Republican fighting for their party's nomination. The latest polls have had Huntsman and Paul neck-and-neck for the past few days, at right under 20% each (both behind Romney, who, as usual, hovers in the 30-40% range). Given how wrong I was in predicting a Paul victory in Iowa last week, I hesitate to go out on a limb tonight, but I would hope that New Hampshire voters would be smart enough to go with Huntsman over Paul. Romney's going to win of course (I predict with around 35%), I think Huntsman comes in second with around 20-25%, giving him enough of a boost to stay in the race, while Paul gets third, just as he did in Iowa, at just under 20%. Next stop- South Carolina on January 21, which is sure to be the most interesting of the early contests, given that it will be a must-win for both Santorum and Gingrich (neither one of which is likely to be much of a player in New Hampshire) if they are to have any chance of stopping Romney.